Saturday, April 19, 2014
The Human and Nature DYnamical (HANDY) Model Predicts the fall of Modern Society
For 30 years, I dealt with the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) on almost a daily basis. I know their rules. One of their most hallowed rules was that you
had to be able to document where the money came from for any activity you did on
their behalf. Also, if you use their
money, you tell your audience that you used their money (kinda like “your tax
dollars at work”). This was a result of
several contractors raking in large funds for private use by charging it to
activity in support of whatever vehicle they were flying. If you were caught disobeying this rule, you
were sure to lose your job, if not face legal action. I’ve told you this so that I can set the
stage for the topic of this U-Predict broadcast.
Mathematician Safa Motesharrei is a Research Assistant at
SESYNC and a PhD candidate in Applied Mathematics/Public Policy at the
University of Maryland (UMD), College Park.
He devised a study on the collapse of civilization. This paper has the following statement within
its opening pages:
"This work was partially funded through NASA/GSFC
[Goddard Space Flight Center] grant NNX12AD03A."
This study used a NASA toolset, the Human and Nature
DYnamical (HANDY) model to determine an obvious by very disturbing fact:
"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not
more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced
Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced,
sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."
By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past
cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors
which explain civilizational decline, and which may help determine the risk of
collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.
These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to
generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to
the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the
economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses [poor]."
These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in
the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five
thousand years."
In other words, our society is participating in the kinds of
actives that lead to collapse in the annals of history. When the research was first released, NASA
said nothing; however within a few days NASA was totally denying that it had
anything at all to do with the study. Of
course, it is easy to see why they would run from such data. Once again, we are back to the “maker/taker”
argument; however, Motesharrei’s study clearly states that the “takers” and
their endless need for wealth and status are the cause of the downfall. With the Supreme Court ruling to give the
wealthy more opportunity to buy legislators and legislations within a few days
of the release of this paper, it is easy to see why a government agency that is
dependent on these bought-and-paid for legislators for their funds (which are
meager), the would not support the research.
So the purpose of this show was to (a) verify that NASA ran from the
results (not very scientific) and (b) see if Tarot would agree with the results
of the study.
We had a fabulous reading room for this show: Ivy Lieberman, Anita Perez, Becky Greywolf,
Patti Phare-Camp, Jean Maurie Puhlman, Camille Kea, and ReeNee Cummins.
The questions ask of Tarot basically boiled down to two
major concepts: (a) why did NASA claim
no responsibility at all (including monetary) for the study, and (b) was the
study accurate?
The cards wasted no time in telling the Reading Room exactly
what we wanted to know. The card that
was pulled in synchronicity the most was The Devil. Why?
Here we have what is supposed to be a very scientific agency. That has been the sacred trust that they have
held with the citizens of the world; do good, do good science, share the
results. But the answer from both the
cards and the interpretation from the reading room was that the decision was
made to turn their back on the research because it showed exactly what advanced,
collapsing societies are ADDICTED to – power and money. When those most addicted to power and money
are the ones holding the purse strings, it is easy to see why an agency would
break their trust with the general public.
Ivy Lieberman’s interpretation pretty much nailed it –“we have a history
of ignoring those things that stare us in the face.... We also pulled the Judgment Card as another
Major Arcana. This card tells us that we
need to pay attention, to “wake up” to what is going on.
The
Swords spoke out very plainly. The study
was defined by 3 cards – we had the 3 (heartache), the 5 (vanquishing or being
vanquished by an enemy) and the 10 (the final end). It is easy to see that these three cards sum
up the results of the study. The need to
vanquish or be vanquished and the heartache this would cause. The cost of the battle could easily be the 10
of swords – just as the study predicts; another civilization lost to
antiquity. Jean Maurie Puhlman pulled Angel Tarot while
we were reading. At this point, she
pulled Angel Justice, Archangel Raguel – and the advice was to fight for
justice and equality. Rulings will be
made in your favor - Don't give up!
We
pulled the 6 of Cups in synchronicity as well.
This is the card of nostalgia - want to go back to the “good old days”. What is truly sad is that this is not the
answer. We have to all agree to move in
a new direction. This is not going to be
easy. Many people do not want to have to
involve themselves in any kind of political or social process. The study says that if people come to
understand that we are all responsible for the society and our future, we see
the pattern, we can (and should) do something about it).
The
final two synchronistic cards were the Two of Pentacles and the Queen of
Wands. These cards talk about sharing
the study. The NASA behavior should be
ignored in light of the importance of the study. What the study says, and what we can do about
it is the most important thing. The
Queen of Wands is the pragmatic, back to basics queen. The
study encourages living that way.
However, we can talk about the study in a back-to-basics way. It doesn’t matter who is president; it doesn’t
matter who controls Congress; society’s move to the wealthy with all the power
and the average person having none has been going on for over 50 years. In fact, it happened in the 20’s in the last
century which triggered the great depression.
It was “out of the box thinking” that started to turn the country
around.
Tarot
tells us that we are on a slippery slope.
Tarot also tells us that we have been given an opportunity to fix it. To take action to repair our society so that
we can survive, will be up to us. Are you
willing to get involved, U-Predict…
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